Belinda Boyd is reviewing a newly proposed advertising campaign. Based on her 15 years' experience, she believes the campaign has a 75% chance of significantly increasing brand name recognition of the product. This is an example of assigning probabilities by the
________________ method.

Question

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

The question presents Belinda Boyd relying on her personal experience and judgment to assign a 75% probability to a campaign outcome. This fits the concept of subjective probability, which is based on individual belief, intuition, or expert opinion rather than on formal data or frequencies.

Why this is the chosen interpretation:
- It explicitly states the probability comes from her 15 years of experience, implying a personal assessment rather than an analyzed data set.
- Subjective probability uses expert judgment when there is insufficient empirical data or when a decision-maker weighs qualitative factors that are not easily captured by numbers alone.

Why other interpretations would be inappropriate in this context (if they were options):
- Objective/empirical probability would require observed data, experiments, or reliable frequencies, not a single expert’s belief.
- A priori probability is based on logical reasoning from theoretical principles or symmetry without data; it is not rooted in experienced judgment about a specific campaign’s outcome.
- Frequentist interpretations rely on long-run frequencies from repeated trials; applying it to a single campaign’s outcome probability would be inappropriate.
- A heuristic or rule-of-thumb could resemble subjective judgment, but the term “subjective probability” most accurately captures a quantified belief derived from a person’s expertise rather than a generic guideline.

In summary, since the probability is derived from Belinda’s personal expertise and judgment without reference to a structured data set or formal prior information, labeling it as subjective probability is appropriate and aligns with common definitions in probability theory and decision analysis.

BRED001 Week 3 Review

Belinda Boyd is reviewing a newly proposed advertising campaign. Based on her 15 years' experience, she believes the campaign has a 75% chance of significantly increasing brand name recognition of the product. This is an example of assigning probabilities by the ________________ method.

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