In project risk analysis, task duration uncertainty can be modelled using:

Question

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

The question asks: In project risk analysis, task duration uncertainty can be modelled using:

First, observe that the provided answer field lists "Probabilistic estimates" as the correct option.

However, the answer_options field is empty, so there are no alternative choices displayed to compare against. This limits the ability to perform a full option-by-option analysis, but we can still reason about the concept in general.

Reasoning about the correct idea:
- Probabilistic estimates treat task durations as random variables with a distribution (e.g., normal, triangular, beta, or empirical). This captures uncertainty because the duration is not a single fixed value but a range with likelihoods attached to different durations.
- In risk analysis practices, techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation or probabilistic scheduling rely on these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the project model, yielding a distribution of possible finish dates and risk metrics.
- This approach contrasts with deterministic estimates, where a single point estimate is used and uncertainty is ignored or handled via simple buffers, which often understate or mischaracterize risk.
- The probabilistic framing allows calculation of confidence intervals, probability of meeting deadlines, and expected value under uncertainty, making it a core tool in risk analysis.

Why the lack of options matters for evaluating alternatives:
- Since no other options are presented, we cannot discuss why alternatives like fixed estimates, ranges without probabilities, expert judgment without distributional assumptions, or range estimates with linear scaling would be insufficient or misleading. In a complete question, you would compare these approaches: deterministic point estimates (high risk of underestimating variability), ranges without explicit probabilities (ambiguous weighting), or distributions anchored in historical data or expert elicitation (preferable for uncertainty modeling).

Takeaway for studying: when modelling duration uncertainty in project risk analysis, embracing probabilistic estimates enables realistic propagation of uncertainty through the project schedule and supports informed risk-based decisions.

PJM6015.20760.202525 PJM6015_Week 5_Test Your Knowledge (TYK)

In project risk analysis, task duration uncertainty can be modelled using:

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