Consider the nonlinear model
𝑦
𝑡
=
𝜃
1
𝑥
𝑡
+
𝜃
2
𝑧
𝑡
+
𝜀
𝑡
where the sample data
(
𝑦
1
,
𝑥
1
,
𝑧
1
)
,
.
.
.
,
(
𝑦
𝑇
,
𝑥
𝑇
,
𝑧
𝑇
)
are i.i.d. and
𝐸
(
𝜀
𝑡
|
𝑥
𝑡
,
𝑧
𝑡
)
=
0
. We know that the nonlinear least square estimator is asymptotically normal, that is
⤳
𝑇
(
𝜃
̂
𝑁
𝐿
−
𝜃
0
)
⤳
𝑑
𝑁
(
0
,
𝐴
0
−
1
𝛺
0
𝐴
0
−
1
)
To compute the standard errors we need to estimate
𝛺
0
,
𝛺
̂
0
=
[
1
𝑇
∑
𝑡
=
1
𝑇
𝜀
̂
𝑡
2
𝑥
𝑡
2
𝜃
̂
1
2
(
𝑥
𝑡
−
1
)

1
𝑇
∑
𝑡
=
1
𝑇
𝜀
̂
𝑡
2
𝑥
𝑡
𝜃
̂
1
𝑥
𝑡
−
1
𝑧
𝑡
𝜃
̂
2
𝑧
𝑡
−
1

1
𝑇
∑
𝑡
=
1
𝑇
𝜀
̂
𝑡
2
𝑥
𝑡
𝜃
̂
1
𝑥
𝑡
−
1
𝑧
𝑡
𝜃
̂
2
𝑧
𝑡
−
1

]
What is the missing entry in the matrix
𝛺
̂
0
?

Question

Consider the nonlinear model
𝑦
𝑡
=
𝜃
1
𝑥
𝑡
+
𝜃
2
𝑧
𝑡
+
𝜀
𝑡
where the sample data 
(
𝑦
1
,
𝑥
1
,
𝑧
1
)
,
.
.
.
,
(
𝑦
𝑇
,
𝑥
𝑇
,
𝑧
𝑇
)
 are i.i.d. and 
𝐸
(
𝜀
𝑡
|
𝑥
𝑡
,
𝑧
𝑡
)
=
0
. We know that the nonlinear least square estimator is asymptotically normal, that is
⤳
𝑇
(
𝜃
̂
𝑁
𝐿
−
𝜃
0
)
⤳
𝑑
𝑁
(
0
,
𝐴
0
−
1
𝛺
0
𝐴
0
−
1
)
To compute the standard errors we need to estimate 
𝛺
0
,
𝛺
̂
0
=
[
1
𝑇
∑
𝑡
=
1
𝑇
𝜀
̂
𝑡
2
𝑥
𝑡
2
𝜃
̂
1
2
(
𝑥
𝑡
−
1
)
	
1
𝑇
∑
𝑡
=
1
𝑇
𝜀
̂
𝑡
2
𝑥
𝑡
𝜃
̂
1
𝑥
𝑡
−
1
𝑧
𝑡
𝜃
̂
2
𝑧
𝑡
−
1

1
𝑇
∑
𝑡
=
1
𝑇
𝜀
̂
𝑡
2
𝑥
𝑡
𝜃
̂
1
𝑥
𝑡
−
1
𝑧
𝑡
𝜃
̂
2
𝑧
𝑡
−
1
	
]
What is the missing entry in the matrix 
𝛺
̂
0
?

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

We are asked to identify the missing entry in the matrix Ω̂0 given the context of the nonlinear least squares asymptotics and the sample-based estimates shown.

- Start by recalling the structure: Ω̂0 (the estimated asymptotic variance-covariance matrix for the stack of score components) is built from sample averages of products that involve the squared residuals ε̂t^2 and the regressors or their transforms that affect each parameter. In a nonlinear model with y_t = θ1 x_t + θ2 z_t + ε_t and E(ε_t | x_t, z_t) = 0, the score contributions for θ1 and θ2 typically involve x_t and z_t, respectively. When you square these or form cross-products, you encounter terms like ε̂t^2 x_t^2, ε̂t^2 z_t^2, and ε̂t^2 x_t z_t, potentially scaled by functions of the parameter estimates (e.g., θ̂1, θ̂2).

- Evaluate the candidate entries conceptually: the entries of Ω̂0 must reflect how the score for θ1 and the score for θ2 vary with the data. If the entry corresponds to the second component (associated with θ2), you would expect terms that involve z_t, particularly ε̂t^2 z_t^2, possibly multiplied by a function of θ̂2 (since θ2 is the coefficient on z_t). Similarly, a cross-entry between θ1 and θ2 would involve ε̂t^2 x_t z_t and a product of θ̂1 and θ̂2, rather than pure θ̂2^2 terms.

- Analyze the options one by one with these principles in mind:
  1) The first option shows a term with ε̂t^2 z_t^2 θ̂2^2, which aligns with a diagonal-like component associated with θ2, incorporating the squared z_t term and the squared θ2 estimate. If the intended entry is the (2,2) element or a component that scales with θ̂2^2, this form could be plausible. However, the presence of θ̂2^2 (instead of a direct θ̂2, or a cross-term with x_t) suggests it's capturing a variance-type contribution that scales with the magnitude of θ2 (through θ̂2^2).
  2) The second option resembles the first but places θ̂2^2 in the same squared form with a different indexing, still reflecting a z_t-based, θ2-driven component. Distinguishing between options 1 and 2 hinges on the exact indexing convention for the Ω̂0 matrix (which entry is being filled). Without that, both could be plausible candidates for a θ2-related diagonal term.
  3) The third option introduces a sum that contains ε̂t^2 x_t^2 and an extra term involving θ̂1^2 and (x_t − 1) and θ̂2^2 and (z_t − 1). This mixes x_t^2 with θ̂1^2 and z_t with θ̂2^2, and even includes (x_t − 1) and (z_t − 1) adjustments. While nonlinear least squares diagonals can involve x_t^2 or z_t^2, the appearance of (x_t − 1) and (z_t − 1) factors and a combination of both θ̂1^2 and θ̂2^2 within the same sum makes this option structurally unlikely unless the model specifies such detrending or transformed regressors. Generally, such mixed terms without a clear derivation from the score structure are less motivated.
  4) The fourth option also presents a cross-looking structure with θ̂1^2, x_t z_t^2, and θ̂2^2 squared terms. The presence of x_t z_t^2 (a mixed product) inside a sum labeled as a 1/T sum for the entry, along with θ̂1^2 and θ̂2^2, suggests an attempt to capture a cross-variation term but includes an unusual z_t^2 Peculiarity. This is less consistent with a straightforward θ2-driven diagonal component and more likely to reflect a cross-derivative adjustment, which would typically appear in an off-diagonal entry rather than a (2,2)-type diagonal.
  5) The fifth option combines a 1/T sum of ε̂t^2 x_t with θ̂1^2 and a combination involving 2x_t − 1 and z_t terms with θ̂2^2 and (2 z_t − 1). This mix of 2x_t − 1 and 2 z_t − 1 factors, along with both θ̂1^2 and θ̂2^2, reads as a highly convoluted combination that is unlikely to correspond to a standard Ω̂0 entry unless there is a very particular centering or scaling in the score equations. In typical practice, off-the-shelf Ω̂0 components are built from simple products like ε̂t^2 x_t^2, ε̂t^2 z_t^2, or ε̂t^2 x_t z_t, rather than such shifted or product-heavy constructs.

- Summarizing the reasoning: the most natural candidates for an entry associated with θ2 (the z_t coefficient) are those that involve ε̂t^2 z_t^2, possibly scaled by a function of θ̂2, and without introducing x_t terms or cross-products unless we are specifically filling a cross-entry. Among the options, those containing ε̂t^2 z_t^2 θ̂2^2 stand out as the most consistent with a θ2-related diagonal component of Ω̂0. The other options introduce x_t terms, cross-terms, or unusual (x_t − 1) or (z_t − 1) adjustments that do not align with the standard construction of the Ω̂0 entries for this model.

- Therefore, the likely intended correct structure among the provided choices centers on the terms with ε̂t^2 z_t^2 θ̂2^2, i.e., the options that place z_t^2 and θ̂2^2 together inside the sum, forming a diagonal-type contribution for the second parameter.

BU.232.630.W4.SP25 Quiz 1

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