When the actual demand data for Day 6 became available, the manager asked for the forecast error. You calculated it as _____________ rolls.

Hints:

- Calculate the moving average first.

- Round the answer to two decimal place. For example, 11.11.

Question

When the actual demand data for Day 6 became available, the manager asked for the forecast error.  You calculated it as _____________ rolls.

Hints:

- Calculate the moving average first.

- Round the answer to two decimal place.  For example, 11.11.

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

The question asks how the forecast error for Day 6 was calculated, given the instruction to first compute the moving average and then round to two decimals.

Start by identifying what forecast error means in this context. In forecasting, the forecast error for a given period is typically the difference between the actual value and the forecast for that period: Error = Actual − Forecast.

Since the hint specifies calculating a moving average first, the forecast for Day 6 would be the moving average value computed using the data available before Day 6 (i.e., Day 1 through Day 5). The exact moving average window (e.g., 2-day, 3-day, 5-day, etc.) is necessary to reproduce a numeric result, but the prompt does not specify the window size. So we outline the general process:
- Step 1: Gather Day 1 through Day 5 actual demand data.
- Step 2: Choose the moving average window (the window size could be 2, 3, 4, 5, etc., depending on the method used by the manager). 
- Step 3: Compute the moving average for Day 6 using the chosen window. This value becomes the forecast for Day 6 (Forecast_Day6).
- Step 4: Obtain the actual Day 6 demand value (Actual_Day6).
- Step 5: Calculate the forecast error: Error_Day6 = Actual_Day6 − Forecast_Day6.
- Step 6: Round the resulting error to two decimal places, as required.

Because the prompt does not provide the Day 1–Day 6 actual data or the chosen moving average window, we cannot numerically verify the exact value. If the actual Day 6 data and the Day 1–5 data with the specified window are provided, you would subtract the moving-average forecast for Day 6 from the actual Day 6 value and then round to two decimals to obtain the error.

If the stated answer 5.67 is the computed error, that would imply: Error_Day6 = 5.67 after rounding. This would occur only if Actual_Day6 − Forecast_Day6 equals 5.67 (before rounding), given the window used for the moving average and the Day 1–5 data. Without those numbers, this value remains a placeholder explanation rather than a verifiable calculation.

In summary, the correct approach is to compute the Day 6 forecast using the moving average of prior periods, subtract that forecast from the actual Day 6 value to obtain the error, and then round to two decimals. The lack of concrete data prevents a numeric confirmation of 5.67.

SCO 3001 (004/005/006) Second Exam - Spring 2025

When the actual demand data for Day 6 became available, the manager asked for the forecast error. You calculated it as _____________ rolls. Hints: - Calculate the moving average first. - Round the answer to two decimal place. For example, 11.11.

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