Tuan bought a new leather jacket after saving for many months for the luxury purchase. On the first day he went out wearing the new garment, he found a $50 bill on the sidewalk outside of his office. He now refers to the jacket as his "lucky jacket" and believes that it has some magical power to give him good fortune. Tuan's belief in the jacket's cosmic ability is an example of

Question

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

The scenario involves Tuan attributing his good fortune to a specific object (the new leather jacket) after a single coincidental event (finding a $50 bill) and labeling the jacket as having magical power. This reflects a cognitive bias where a perceived link is formed between two events that occur together, even though no causal relationship exists.
Option 1: an illusory correlation. This is the correct framing because Tuan is wrongly linking the jacket to luck based on a coincidence, making him believe there is a connection where none has real causal basis. The mind tends to notice and remember coincidences and then infer causation from them, which fits an illusory correlation.
Option 2: the falsification principle. This principle, from philosophy of science, concerns whether a hypothesis can be tested and potentially disproven. It is not about forming mistaken causal connections in everyday thinking, so it does not describe Tuan’s belief.
Option 3: the availability heuristic. While this heuristic involves judging likelihood based on how easily examples come to mind, the core error here is attributing causal power to the jacket after a single positive event, not simply over-weighting memorable anecdotes. The primary bias is more accurately an illusory correlation than a mere availability bias.
Option 4: selective attention. This would involve focusing attention on certain aspects of a situation while ignoring others. Although Tuan’s focus on the jacket might contribute to his belief, selective attention does not capture the key error of falsely linking the jacket to luck itself, which is central to illusory correlation.

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