Climate models predict that, if the RCP8.5 scenario materialises, the rise in the Earth’s temperature by the end of this century would be about

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The question asks: Climate models predict that, if the RCP8.5 scenario materialises, the rise in the Earth’s temperature by the end of this century would be about. The provided answer indicates 'a. 4°C'. Notably, the option list is missing in the data, so we cannot evaluate alternative choices side-by-side. Nevertheless, we can discuss how to think about this question and the typical warming ranges associated with RCP8.5.

Contextual background: RCP8.5 represents a high-emission pathway with substantial greenhouse gas concentrations by the end of the century. Climate model projections commonly report global mean surface temperature increases relative to preindustrial levels. Under RCP8.5, many ensembles project roughly around 3.5°C to 4.5°C warming by 2100, with some models peaking higher or lower depending on feedbacks, climate sensitivity, and aerosol forcings. In broad terms, a ballpark of about 4°C is a representative central tendency in many assessments, though a range exists.

Analysis of possible options (in a typical scenario with multiple choices):
- If an option around 4°C is provided, it aligns with the common estimate for end-of-century warming under RCP8.5 in many model ensembles. This would reflect the mean or median projection across multiple climate models, acknowledging natural variability and model differences.
- Lower warming values (e.g., near 2°C or less) would generally be associated with much lower emission scenarios or very strong negative forcings, which would not characterize RCP8.5. These would be inconsistent with the high-emission pathway.
- Higher warming values (e.g., above 5°C) could occur in some models or in specific regional assessments, or if certain feedbacks are stronger, but they are less representative of the central tendency across the full ensemble for the end of the century under RCP8.5. If such an option existed, it would reflect upper-bound possibilities rather than the typical projection.
- If the option list included qualifiers like 'approximately', 'around', or 'approximately 4°C', those would be consistent with a central estimate, whereas precise figures (e.g., '4.2°C' vs '4.0°C') would require specification of the model ensemble and time horizon.

In sum, given the common interpretation of RCP8.5 projections, a rise of about 4°C by 2100 is a plausible and frequently cited central estimate. The justification hinges on the long-term accumulation of greenhouse gas forcing under a high-emission scenario and the climate system’s response as captured by climate models. The absence of other options prevents a formal multiple-choice comparison, but the stated figure corresponds to a typical projection range for this scenario.

Dashboard QUIZ Multiple choice questions - Part 3

Climate models predict that, if the RCP8.5 scenario materialises, the rise in the Earth’s temperature by the end of this century would be about

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