What is the probability that a woman who tests positive actually has gestational diabetes?

Select the answer that is closest to the actual value.

Question

What is the probability that a woman who tests positive actually has gestational diabetes?

Select the answer that is closest to the actual value.

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

The prompt asks: 'What is the probability that a woman who tests positive actually has gestational diabetes? Select the answer that is closest to the actual value.'

However, the provided data is incomplete for computing any numerical probability:
- There are no answer options listed to compare against.
- There are no test characteristics (sensitivity and specificity) or prevalence information given, both of which are essential to determine the positive predictive value.

Key concept to compute the requested probability:
- Positive predictive value (PPV) is the probability that someone who tests positive actually has the condition.
- The formula for PPV is: PPV = (sensitivity × prevalence) / [(sensitivity × prevalence) + ((1 − specificity) × (1 − prevalence))].

What you would need to proceed:
- Sensitivity of the gestational diabetes test.
- Specificity of the gestational diabetes test.
- Prevalence (or prior probability) of gestational diabetes in the tested population.

If you had these three numbers, you could plug them in to compute PPV and then identify which option (among the provided choices) is closest to that value. In real-world terms, PPV tends to be highly dependent on prevalence: even a test with high sensitivity and specificity can have a low PPV in a population with very low prevalence, and vice versa.

In the absence of the options and the necessary test metrics, we cannot determine a numeric value like 0.10 (10%) or any other figure with justification.

When options are provided, you would:
- Compute PPV using the given sensitivity, specificity, and prevalence for gestational diabetes.
- Compare the resulting PPV to each option, selecting the one closest to the computed value.

If you can supply the missing answer choices and the test characteristics (or the context from which they’re drawn), I can walk through which option best matches the actual PPV and explain why.

FA25_QTM_110_1 Quiz #10: Bayesian Thinking and Logic

What is the probability that a woman who tests positive actually has gestational diabetes? Select the answer that is closest to the actual value.

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