If a scholar says there is an 80% chance that Shakespeare wrote the play Macbeth, what does this most likely mean?

Question

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

In this question, we evaluate what it means when a scholar says there is an 80% chance that Shakespeare wrote Macbeth.
Option 1: '80% of the words in Macbeth were written by Shakespeare.' This is wrong because probability statements about authorship do not pertain to the proportion of words attributed to a single author; authorship probability is about belief regarding authorship, not word counts.
Option 2: 'By the definition of what Macbeth is, there is an 80% chance that Shakespeare wrote it.' This is flawed because simply defining a work as Macbeth does not assign a probabilistic claim about who wrote it; the statement concerns belief about authorship, not definitional criteria.
Option 3: 'If you were able to run simulations of history, then in 80% of the simulations Shakespeare writes Macbeth.' This misconstrues probability as a frequency across possible histories; genuine probability here reflects a degree of belief given evidence, not a future sampling of historical outcomes.
Option 4: 'The scholar’s degree of belief that Shakespeare wrote Macbeth is 80%.' This aligns with the concept of subjective probability or degree of belief: the scholar is expressing their confidence level about authorship as a probabilistic assessment, not an assertion about objective frequencies.
Option 5: '80% of scholars think that Shakespeare wrote Macbeth.' This is about the distribution of opinions among scholars, not the scholar's own degree of belief; the statement misinterprets probability as a consensus proportion rather than an individual belief.
In summary, the correct interpretation is that the 80% reflects the scholar’s own degree of belief about authorship, not counts of words, definitional criteria, simulated histories, or majority opinion among scholars.

ATHK1X01 Practice Quiz (Mastery quiz questions Week 2-13)

If a scholar says there is an 80% chance that Shakespeare wrote the play Macbeth, what does this most likely mean?

View Explanation

Log in for full answers

Similar Questions

Belinda Boyd is reviewing a newly proposed advertising campaign. Based on her 15 years' experience, she believes the campaign has a 75% chance of significantly increasing brand name recognition of the product. This is an example of assigning probabilities by the ________________ method.

A dam on a river that holds back a water reservoir begins to leak. Engineers say that there is a 10 percent chance of the dam breaking if repairs are not made. This is an example of ________.

If a scholar says there is an 80% chance that Shakespeare wrote the play Macbeth, what does this most likely mean?

Subjective evaluation of probabilities can exhibit

In a consumer society, many adults channel creativity into buying things

Economic stress and unpredictable times have resulted in a booming industry for self-help products

People born without creativity never can develop it

More Practical Tools for Students Powered by AI Study Helper

Homework AI Solver

Stylized AI Paper Writer

Plagiarism Checker Assistant

Citation AI Academic Writing Tool

In-Class Translation Assistant

AI Note Generator

AI Quiz Answers

Past Exam Questions from University Test Bank

Smart Practice Assistant

Adaptive Practice

Making Your Study Simpler