How many Australian houses are at risk of coastal flooding if we had a 1m rise in sea levels?

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The question asks: How many Australian houses are at risk of coastal flooding if we had a 1m rise in sea levels? We are given five answer choices to evaluate.
Option 1: 'Up to 500,000' — This would imply a very large portion of housing stock is at risk. While Australia does have significant coastlines and flood exposures, this figure tends to be higher than commonly cited estimates for a 1m rise, making it a plausible overestimate in many assessments.
Option 2: 'Up to 250,000' — This option aligns with widely reported estimates from national risk assessments that consider 1m sea level rise scenarios and identify hundreds of thousands of homes at risk along coasts, particularly in low-lying urban and peri-urban areas. It sits in the commonly cited mid-range for Australia under this scenario.
Option 3: 'Up to 50,000' — This figure would indicate a relatively small coastal exposure, which seems inconsistent with many coastal flood risk models that show hundreds of thousands of homes susceptible to seawater ingress under a 1m rise, especially near major cities and flood-prone zones. It appears too low given typical risk maps.
Option 4: 'More than 1 million' — This would suggest an extremely widespread risk across Australia, likely exceeding most credible models for a 1m rise. While some regions are severely exposed, over a million homes nationwide would generally be considered an overstatement for a 1m scenario.
Option 5: 'Up to 100,000' — Similar to the 50,000 figure, this underestimates the geographic extent of exposure in many coastal risk analyses, which commonly show hundreds of thousands of homes at stake in a 1m rise scenario.
Across the options, the central challenge is distinguishing between modest, moderate, and highly precautionary estimates of exposure under a 1m sea level rise. The 'Up to 250,000' option occupies the middle ground that matches typical national assessments and reflects substantial but not overwhelming risk to homes, particularly in low-lying coastal zones. In contrast, the other options either understate the exposure (50,000; 100,000) or overstate it (500,000; more than 1 million) based on standard coastal flood risk analyses for a 1m rise. The correct interpretation is that a 1m rise places a sizeable portion of housing at risk, but not necessarily the entire coastal stock, depending on local topography, elevation, and defenses.

OLES1602 (all) Topic 5: Climate apocalypse

How many Australian houses are at risk of coastal flooding if we had a 1m rise in sea levels?

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