Questions
FA25_QTM_110_1 Quiz #10: Bayesian Thinking and Logic
Single choice
What common inferential error discussed in class best describes the following anecdote: In the medical world, a frequently observed phenomenon is that those who have adverse outcomes (death or permanent quality of life decrease) after being diagnosed with serious medical conditions exhibit serious vitamin D deficiencies (a statistically significant decrease when comparing those with adverse outcomes to those who recovered). Since vitamin D is most associated with exposure to sunlight and low level UV radiation, many homeopathic practicioners recommend that getting more sunlight increases the probability that sick patients are more likely to recover.
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Step-by-Step Analysis
The passage presents a scenario in which people who end up with adverse medical outcomes also show vitamin D deficiencies. The implied conclusion by some practitioners is that increasing sunlight (and thus vitamin D) will improve recovery. To analyze the inferential error, consider what is being assumed about the relationships between variables.
Option discussion:
- Reversing the cause-and-effect: One common inference is that vitamin D deficiency causes worse outcomes, leading to the recommenda......Login to view full explanationLog in for full answers
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