How many people live below the 100% likelihood flooding water line in the city you chose? Are any types of ethnic or social vulnerability populations impacted disproportionately (at a higher risk) by the flooding?

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How many people live below the 100% likelihood flooding water line in the city you chose? Are any types of ethnic or social vulnerability populations impacted disproportionately (at a higher risk) by the flooding?

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This prompt asks for two linked but distinct pieces of information: (a) the number of people living below the 100% flood water line in the chosen city, and (b) whether any ethnic or social vulnerability groups are disproportionately affected. Since no data or city is specified in the question, you’ll need to gather and cite sources before answering.

First, plan how you will define and measure the key terms. What does “below the 100% likelihood flooding water line” mean in your data context? It could refer to areas that are predicted to remain flooded with a 100% certainty under a given flood scenario, or to zones classified as having a current or past 100-year flood risk. Decide on the definition you will use and be clear about it in your response.

Next, determine the data sources and methods. Potential steps include:
- Identify the city and obtain the official flood risk maps or hazard maps from local government, FEMA (or relevant national agency), or peer‑reviewed urban resilience studies.
- Acquire population data: census blocks, census tract data, or a gridded population dataset that can be intersected with the flood risk layers.
- Use geographic information system (GIS) analysis to overlay the flood risk layer with the population layer to estimate the number of people living in the specified flood zone.
- If your assignment asks about disproportionate impacts, obtain demographic data by geographic unit (e.g., race/ethnicity, income, age, disability) and perform a cross-tabulation or disparity analysis to see who is overrepresented in the at-risk areas.

Then, outline the calculation approach. For example:
- Define a spatial unit (city-wide, by neighborhood, or by census tract).
- Compute the total population within the 100% flood risk area by summing populations of all intersecting units that fall into that zone.
- Compare this to the city’s overall population to get a raw count and a proportion living in high-risk zones.
- For disparities, calculate rates or proportions of each vulnerable group (e.g., low-income, elderly, disabled, minority groups) within the high-risk area and compare to their representation city-wide using relative risk or rate ratios.

Consider the interpretation and caveats. Some important points to address:
- Data currency: flood maps, population counts, and demographic distributions change over time; note the year of each dataset and how that affects estimates.
- Uncertainty: models predicting 100% flooding are deterministic for a scenario, but real outcomes vary; acknowledge the difference between modeled exposure and actual impact.
- Boundary issues: differences in geographic units (cities, tracts, blocks) can affect results; describe how you aligned the data spatially (e.g., areal interpolation, GIS masking).
- Definitions of vulnerability: vulnerability is multidimensional (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity); simple measures like income or race capture only part of the story.

If you do not have access to a city’s data right now, outline a hypothetical workflow and the kinds of numbers or findings you would expect to report once you obtain the data. For example, you might say that a certain percentage of residents live in the high-risk zone, and that a higher share of a given vulnerable group resides there compared to the city average, with a note about confidence intervals or data quality.

Finally, when you present your answer, structure it clearly: state the city you analyzed, specify the flood-risk definition used, report the estimated population in the high-risk area with the data year, and discuss any disparities by vulnerable groups along with caveats about data limitations. This approach will help readers understand both the magnitude of exposure and who is most affected, with transparency about methods and assumptions.

OCEAN 102 A Assignment #2 - What U.S. Cities Will be Lost to Sea Level Rise?

How many people live below the 100% likelihood flooding water line in the city you chose? Are any types of ethnic or social vulnerability populations impacted disproportionately (at a higher risk) by the flooding?

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