What part of the United States is seeing the greatest change in the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 1% of daily precipitation events (aka extreme events)? Is this region seeing an increase or decrease in precipitation intensity?

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Question restatement: The prompt asks which U.S. region is experiencing the greatest change in the amount of precipitation in the heaviest 1% of daily events (extreme precipitation), and whether that region is seeing an increase or a decrease in precipitation intensity.

Option 1: 'Northeast; increase' This choice reflects the understanding that the Northeast has shown notable increases in heavy-precipitation events in recent climate analyses, including higher frequency or intensity of the top-end daily rainfall totals in many datasets. The reasoning is that extreme events are becoming more intense in this region, consistent with trends observed in some meteorological assessments.

Option 2: 'Northeast; decrease' This suggests the Northeast would be experiencing a reduction in extreme-precipitation intensity. However, the prevailing evidence from climate studies generally indicates either increasing intensity of heavy rainfall events in parts of the Northeast or only ambiguous regional trends, not a clear, broad decrease across the board. Therefore, this option mischaracterizes the overall direction for extremes in this region.

Option 3: 'Southeast; increase' This posits that the Southeast has the greatest change, increasing extreme-precipitation intensity. While the Southeast does experience changes in precipitation patterns and can see heavy rainfall events, many analyses identify the Northeast, rather than the Southeast, as showing one of the strongest trends toward heavier extremes, making this option less consistent with the stated "greatest change" criterion for the region.

Option 4: 'Southwest; decrease' This implies both that the Southwest has the greatest change in extremes and that it is a decreasing trend in intensity. The Southwest, characterized by arid or semi-arid conditions, does not typically rank highest in changes to the heaviest daily precipitation events, and a decrease in extreme intensity is not the widely reported pattern there. Thus, this option wrongly assigns both the region and the direction.

Additional considerations: When evaluating questions about regional precipitation extremes, it is important to note that datasets and study periods can yield varying regional emphasis. However, the question asks for the region with the greatest change in the heaviest 1% of daily events and the direction, which aligns with the Northeast showing strong signals of increasing extreme precipitation in many recent assessments. The other options either misidentify the region or misstate the trend direction, making them inconsistent with the typical interpretation of current climate-impacts analyses.

EART-30-01 💡 Week 8 Quiz 1

What part of the United States is seeing the greatest change in the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 1% of daily precipitation events (aka extreme events)? Is this region seeing an increase or decrease in precipitation intensity?

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