Which of the following statements is correct? “When making a decision under uncertainty, a Bayesian observer…”

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In this question, we are evaluating how a Bayesian observer allocates consideration between prior information and sensory evidence when faced with uncertainty.
Option 1: '…puts more weight on the prior information because it’s less reliable.' This contradicts Bayesian principles. If the prior were less reliable, the observer would actually rely less on it, not more, and would instead weight the more reliable sensory information more heavily.
Option 2: '…makes a random guess because of the underlying uncertainty.' A Bayesian approach does not default to random guessing under uncertainty. It systematically integrates information by weighing sources according to their reliability, rather than selecting randomly.
Option 3: '…puts more weight on the sensory information because it’s less reliable.' This misstates the relationship between reliability and weighting. If sensory information is less reliable, a Bayesian observer would place less weight on it and compensate with heavier weighting of the more reliable prior or other reliable sources.
Option 4: '…puts more weight on the prior information if that is more reliable than sensory information.' This aligns with Bayesian intuition: the observer increases reliance on whichever source (prior or sensory) is more reliable given the current context, effectively weighting the priors more when they outperform the sensory data in reliability, leading to a more accurate posterior estimate.

PSYC30018_2025_SM1 Exam: Neuroscience and the Mind (PSYC30018_2025_SM1)- Requires Respondus LockDown Browser

Which of the following statements is correct? “When making a decision under uncertainty, a Bayesian observer…”

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