Test data indicate that ice, snow, or frost having a thickness and roughness similar to medium or coarse sandpaper on the leading edge and upper surface of an airfoil can

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The question asks about the aerodynamic effects of ice, snow, or frost forming a texture similar to medium or coarse sandpaper on the leading edge and upper surface of an airfoil.
Option 1: 'reduce lift by as much as 50 percent and increase drag by as much as 50 percent.' This statement aligns with general aviation and aerodynamics data showing that rough, icy surfaces can significantly degrade performance, with substantial reductions in lift and notable increases in drag. The roughness disrupts the smooth flow, promoting early separation and higher profile drag, which together can produce large lift losses.
Option 2: 'reduce lift by as much as 30 percent and increase drag by 40 percent.' While this captures the direction of the effects (lower lift, higher drag), the specific percentages are more modest than the commonly cited figures for severe ice roughness on critical surfaces; it understates the potential impact in many cases, especially on the leading edge where flow separation is pronounced.
Option 3: 'increase drag and reduce lift by as much as 25 percent.' This option states the correct qualitative effects (drag up, lift down) but again uses a relatively small magnitude (25 percent lift reduction and some drag increase). In practice, the penalty from heavy roughness like ice coatings can exceed these modest values, making this option less representative of the described condition.
Putting the pieces together, the first choice provides the most severe and rounded estimate that captures the substantial aerodynamic penalties associated with significant ice or roughness on the airfoil, whereas the other options give smaller or less comprehensive estimates that are not as consistent with the described roughening effect.

FA25: AVIA-62 Sec 01 - Instru Pilot Ground SU8/SU9: Weather & Weather Services Quiz SP25

Test data indicate that ice, snow, or frost having a thickness and roughness similar to medium or coarse sandpaper on the leading edge and upper surface of an airfoil can

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